ForecastMind
Markets/Spurs vs. Heat
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Spurs vs. Heat

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

63%YES
38%NO

Volume 24h

$945K

Liquidity

$342K

Bid / Ask

62% / 63%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spurs vs. Heat

Full event →

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

66% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

65% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 63%99%
Buy YES@ 63¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO@ 38¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spurs vs. Heat" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $945K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Spurs vs. Heat." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1627634