Markets/Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:06 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+6.7pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Starmer out by April 30, 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Starmer out by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500922

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