Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$49K
Bid / Ask
44% / 45%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
45%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
June 2026
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Trough probability
44% YES — lowest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 2, 2026
Biggest move: -5.5pp
50% → 44%
Mar 18, 2026
Current
45% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 18, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Starmer out by June 30, 2026?" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Starmer out by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/597967
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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