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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5

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Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5

Data as of Mar 31, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

31%YES

70%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

5% / 89%

Spread

84.00pp

Expert Signal

31%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

-17.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

39%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -14.5pp

53% → 39%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

39% YES (-14.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 31%99%

Buy YES@ 31¢

Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 70¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 84.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1785641

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.