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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5

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Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Data as of Mar 31, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

71%YES

29%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$85

Bid / Ask

4% / 91%

Spread

87.00pp

Expert Signal

71%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

-19.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

60% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

41%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -18.5pp

59% → 41%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

41% YES (-18.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 71%99%

Buy YES@ 71¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 29¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5" at 71% YES / 29% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 71%. The bid-ask spread is 87.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 71%, NO 29%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1785634

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.