Markets/Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Market Price

19%YES

81%NO

Vol 24h$41

Liquidity$15K

Bid / Ask17% / 21%

Spread4.70pp

ClosesJun 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 4.70pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/994858