Markets/Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:43 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

6% / 12%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1663282

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