ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
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Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

83%YES
18%NO

Volume 24h

$287K

Liquidity

$13K

Expert Signal

83%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5" at 83% YES / 17% NO. In the last 24 hours, $287K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 83%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 83%, NO 17%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1798125

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: 100%, Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5: 83%, Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: 73%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Trough probability

33% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

33%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -20.5pp

54% → 33%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

44% YES (+10.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 83%99%
Buy YES@ 83¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%
½ Kelly1.4%
Buy NO@ 18¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this