Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5

Market Price

43%YES

57%NO

Vol 24h$19K

Liquidity$35K

Bid / Ask41% / 43%

Spread2.00pp

ClosedApr 25, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets9 markets

9 deadline markets. Combined YES = 475% — 375pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Thunder vs. Suns

78%

Thunder vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline

67%

Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5

43%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+52.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2057610