Markets/Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

39%YES

62%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

37% / 40%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +8.0pp

30% → 38%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

40% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 39%99%

Buy YES@ 39¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 62¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687555