ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5
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Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5

Closed March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

61%YES
40%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$6

Bid / Ask

23% / 84%

Spread

61.00pp

Expert Signal

61%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5

Full event →

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+31.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

30% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: +23.0pp

30% → 53%

Mar 25, 2026

Current

61% YES (+7.5pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 61%99%
Buy YES@ 61¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 40¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 61.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1712475