Markets/Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$3.7M

Liquidity$0

ClosesJun 30, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.3pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Combined YES = 195% — 95pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by June 30th

Trump announces end of military operations against I

100%

by May 31st

Trump announces end of military operations against I

95%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+31.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3.7M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1517836