Trump out as President before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$189K
Bid / Ask
15% / 16%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Trump out as President by June 30?
June
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 3, 2026
Current
17% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump out as President before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Trump out as President before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666861
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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