Trump out as President by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.1M
Liquidity
$659K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump out as President by April 30?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Trump out as President by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1733817
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Trump out as President before GTA VI?: 53%, Trump out as President before 2027?: 17%, June 30: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~23%.
Trump out as President by April 30?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+29.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this