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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)
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UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)

Closed April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES
50%NO

Volume 24h

$939K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $939K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1912521

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

50% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 50%99%
Buy YES@ 50¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 50¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this