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Market Closed

This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)

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UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$1.1M

Liquidity$0

ClosedApr 26, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-53.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1940812