UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$360K

Liquidity$0

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Volume traded

$360K

24h total

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $360K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1950774