Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.0pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing GBP/USD -0.422 ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$35K
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1323364
This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 14%, June 30, 2026: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~83%.
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territo
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
14% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this