Markets/US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Trough probability

56% YES — lowest in period

Mar 5, 2026

Current

60% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+3.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1493939

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