ForecastMind
Markets/US bank failure by December 31?
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US bank failure by December 31?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

59%YES
42%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

57% / 60%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US bank failure by December 31?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "US bank failure by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919597

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

59% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 59%99%
Buy YES@ 59¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 42¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this