ForecastMind
Markets/US bank failure by June 30?
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US bank failure by June 30?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

23% / 29%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US bank failure by June 30?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "US bank failure by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919598

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 26%99%
Buy YES@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this