Markets/US bank failure by May 31?

US bank failure by May 31?

Market Price

28%YES

72%NO

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$2K

Bid / Ask27% / 28%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-15.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US bank failure by May 31?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "US bank failure by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2116379