Markets/US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$49K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Peak probability

20% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

17% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+21.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+21.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1402792