Markets/US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes January 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

35%YES

66%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$90K

Bid / Ask

34% / 35%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

23% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -13.0pp

43% → 30%

Mar 9, 2026

Peak probability

43% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

35% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 35%99%

Buy YES@ 35¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 66¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US recession by end of 2026?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US recession by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/609655