US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 13% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$43K
Bid / Ask
12% / 14%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1115288
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
13% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this