Markets/US strike on Cuba by December 31?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:01 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES

71%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$48K

Bid / Ask

29% / 30%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+7.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: +7.5pp

43% → 51%

Mar 9, 2026

Peak probability

51% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

50% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 30%99%

Buy YES@ 30¢

Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 71¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US strike on Cuba by December 31?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US strike on Cuba by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1107582

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.