Markets/US strike on Cuba by March 31?

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:26 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$86K

Liquidity

$67K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Current

6% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-23.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly23.1%

½ Kelly11.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 23.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US strike on Cuba by March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $86K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US strike on Cuba by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1107581

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.