Markets/US strikes Iraq by March 31

US strikes Iraq by March 31

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:48 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES

0%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

89% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Trough probability

74% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: +15.5pp

81% → 96%

Mar 8, 2026

Current

100% YES (+3.2pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 99%99%

Buy YES@ 99¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US strikes Iraq by March 31" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "US strikes Iraq by March 31." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1467379

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