Markets/US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$17.7M

Liquidity$0

Macro fundamentals+1.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+82.5pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

100%anchor

Manifold

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17.7M has been traded.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466016