US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$129K
Liquidity
$116K
Bid / Ask
52% / 53%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
78% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
50% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +12.5pp
65% → 77%
Mar 9, 2026
Current
53% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $129K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484895
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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