Markets/US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$5.0M

Liquidity$0

ClosesJun 30, 2026

Macro fundamentals+1.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Polymarket prices a US x Iran ceasefire by June 30 at 100%, reflecting extremely high conviction despite a volatile market indicated by a 7.71% rise in the VIX to 18.29. The elevated VIX suggests broader market uncertainty, yet the 100% certainty on the ceasefire suggests traders believe a de-escalation is a foregone conclusion, potentially priced in due to specific diplomatic breakthroughs or imminent strategic shifts. This indicates an expectation that any potential conflict drivers are currently perceived as fully contained or resolved before the deadline.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+54.1pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

100%anchor

Manifold

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5.0M has been traded. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484895