US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3.5M
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: +11.6pp
10% → 21%
Feb 28, 2026
Peak probability
21% YES — highest in period
Feb 28, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3.5M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466012
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Venue Divergence
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