Markets/US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 08:50 AM UTC

Closes April 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

87%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil +1.6% ↑, VIX -7.4% ↓, Gold +1.0% ↑

+1.4pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h03:35 AM

Polymarket Price

88%YES

13%NO

Volume 24h

$185K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

85% / 87%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

85%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $185K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 85%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1911752

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 93%, April 30: 90%, April 15, 2026: 88%.