Markets/US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 09:05 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

58%YES

42%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

56% / 57%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

58%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

62% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Trough probability

55% YES — lowest in period

Mar 25, 2026

Current

58% YES (+3.0pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 58%99%

Buy YES@ 58¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 42¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?" at 58% YES / 42% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 58%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 58%, NO 42%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570155

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