Markets/US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 09:05 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

78%YES

22%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

76% / 80%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

78%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

79% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Current

79% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 78%99%

Buy YES@ 78¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 22¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570156

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.