Markets/US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 07:48 AM UTC

Closes May 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

38%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil -1.1% ↓, VIX +9.8% ↑, Gold +0.2% ↑

+0.9pp

Live compute07:48 AM

Polymarket Price

39%YES

62%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$37K

Bid / Ask

38% / 39%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1962237

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 39%, May 31, 2026: 26%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~36%.