ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5
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Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5

Closed March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$90K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

2% / 13%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-26.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: -29.0pp

48% → 19%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

19% YES (-29.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢
Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $90K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1772613