Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$525K

Liquidity$120K

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-6.4pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds significance as it reflects an 8 percentage point decline in the probability of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 winning by May 2, 2026, reaching a current price of 0%. This movement aligns with the consistently 0% outcome predictions across several sibling markets for other teams in the same period, suggesting a consensus view of unlikely success for these clubs.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

1. FC Heidenheim 1846

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02

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Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)

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Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $525K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2018960