Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$97K

Liquidity$273K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Price swing

14pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$97K

24h total

Liquidity

$273K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+14.5pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 400% — 300pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a dr

1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw

100%

1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5

100%

1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $97K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2019033