Markets/Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES

74%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$73K

Bid / Ask

25% / 27%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+8.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

33% → 23%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

36% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

26% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 26%99%

Buy YES@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616903