Markets/Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$122K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-16.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

24% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -5.5pp

20% → 14%

Mar 3, 2026

Current

8% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616905