Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$58K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
2% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616908
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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