Markets/Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$216K

Liquidity$39K

Bid / Ask0% / 1%

Spread0.40pp

ClosesSep 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $216K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on September 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1129899