Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$445K

Liquidity$281K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+17.5pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's rapid ascent to 100% underscores a significant, immediate shift in collective sentiment, as evidenced by its 18 percentage point increase in zero days. The adjacent markets forecasting zero probability for other outcomes within the same event cluster suggest this market's certainty reflects an updated consensus rather than isolated sentiment.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 300% — 200pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03

100%

Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)

100%

Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $445K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2029336