Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$499
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2026
29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: -12.6pp
17% → 4%
Mar 3, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $499 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469761
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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