Markets/Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Market Price

5%YES

95%NO

FM Estimate

14%

Vol 24h$212

Liquidity$13K

Bid / Ask12% / 17%

Spread5.00pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+1.2pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The Democratic nomination for PA-03 remains a long shot for Ala Stanford, with Polymarket prices indicating a mere 5% probability. No significant recent news appears to have directly influenced this low valuation. The current market intelligence suggests traders anticipate Stanford will not secure the nomination.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-0

Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03

51%

Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for P

Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03

42%

Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA

Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

5%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $212 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704194