Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Closes March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark…
2026
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Mar 8, 2026
Biggest move: +8.7pp
4% → 13%
Mar 8, 2026
Peak probability
13% YES — highest in period
Mar 8, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-18.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1451229
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.