Markets/Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$242K

Liquidity$27K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.20pp

ClosesSep 13, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's 1% YES price reflects a low probability of Alexandra Eala winning the 2026 US Open, aligning with the collective low expectations across related tennis futures where other players are also trading at 1% or less. The absence of a contradiction signal suggests no inherent overvaluation within this specific market compared to its peers.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $242K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on September 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088687