Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$514K
Bid / Ask
8% / 8%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?
2028
26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
8% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559653
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