Markets/Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

$237K

Liquidity

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-16.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Biggest move: -12.8pp

17% → 4%

Mar 3, 2026

Current

0% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $237K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469759

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.