Markets/Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

3% / 6%

Spread

3.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -5.2pp

10% → 5%

Mar 5, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 3.30 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996330